Regime Change!

Oh yes, Regime Change! In the upside-down world we now inhabit, that slogan was once the sole property of an internationalist, democratic Left. We can only blame ourselves for ceding such an exhilarating concept to the Neocons.

No matter. Regime change it is in Lebanon, it seems. And if the popular tide continues rising, it could wash right into Damascus and sweep the murderous Assad clan from its perch.

After the horrific reports of Monday’s car bomb massacre in Iraq, what wonderful news that the pro-Syrian government in Lebanon has been forced to resign in the face of mounting demonstrations. Tens of thousands of Lebanese have been coming into the streets after senior opposition leader Rafik Hariri was killed by a bombing linked to Syria.

Going one atrocity too far, the killing jump-started an anti-Syrian backlash bringing right to the surface all of the frustrations and resentments generated by two decades of Syrian armed occupation. Here’s an excerpt from the report carried in the Toronto Globe and Mail:

Central Beirut, which during this country's long civil war was a perilous no man's land between the warring Christian and Muslim sides, was flooded with singing and dancing Lebanese of all denominations yesterday after the pro-Syrian government stepped down in the face of widespread popular protest.

The surprise resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami and his cabinet heightened Lebanon's two-week political crisis, and upped the pressure on President Bashar Assad's regime in neighbouring Syria to dramatically change its ways.

News of the government's fall was greeted by a thunderous cheer from a crowd of 30,000 gathered on Beirut's Place des Martyrs, a square surrounded by buildings that still bear the scars of the bloody 15-year civil war that ended in 1990, leaving 150,000 people dead.

While some demonstrators hailed the development as signalling the birth of democracy in Lebanon, others said it marked only the first step toward their ultimate goal: withdrawal of the 14,000 troops Syria has stationed in Lebanon and an end to Syrian interference in their country's domestic affairs.

The outbreak of pro-Democracy movements on the fabled “arab street” can only be cause for celebration and optimism. How about, now, an Arab woman as the next Prime Minister of a liberated Lebanon? The Beirut Daily Star editorializes that this is a real possibility:

Where do we go from here? Who will fill the political vacuum yesterday's events have left? Hariri's sister, MP Bahia Hariri, who spoke both eloquently and movingly in the stormy parliamentary session that preceded the government's resignation, is being talked about as a possible candidate for the premiership.

If Lebanon is ready for a female prime minister she must surely be the first choice.

Whoever it is will have the trust of the people in a way that few politicians can ever enjoy. Let us hope this optimism, this trust and this moment is not betrayed. To paraphrase Karami's last words as prime minister, May God preserve what the people of Lebanon have achieved.

Amen. Lebanon has earned a better future. I had the privilege of spending a week there in 1973 as the Yom Kippur War raged in the Sinai. Beirut was, indeed, the Paris of the Middle East and I will always cherish the days I spent at the St. Georges Hotel and the evenings dedicated o sipping beers in the cafes on Al-Hamra and talking late into the night with Palestinians, Maronites and Druze.

A few years later, the county would succumb to a bloody and nightmarish civil war, followed by an Israeli invasion and then partial occupation by the Syrians. The country has economically rebuilt itself but only an exit by the Syrians will allow Lebanon to once again be whole.

Comments

[John Moore (Useful Fools)]

Certainly the desire for freedom is strong. The US pro-democracy stand and the Iraqi election have acted like kindling in the destruction of autocracy in Arab lands.

Let us hope it works. As you point out, Lebanon once had a true democratic system and Beirut was a great city.

Meanwhile, as we put pressure on Syria (and the Lebanese also do so), the risk of terrorism within the US is increasing. Hezbollah, which has its sanctuary in southern Lebanon, may decide to fight here (with suicide bombings), and may also attack Israel (with its estimated 10,000 rockets, some presumably with chemical warheads and range to hit Haifa), in order to maintain its power. Iran will be meddling as they always do.

It is an interesting and soon to be not altogether pretty situation in the M.E. shortly.

[Michael Turner]

"I will always cherish the days I spent at the St. Georges Hotel and the evenings dedicated o sipping beers in the cafes on Al-Hamra and talking late into the night with Palestinians, Maronites and Druids."

Wrong country, wrong millenium: I think you meant "Druze." Unless the barkeep slipped some Ibogaine into your beer ....

[rosedog]

Damn, Michael, you ruined my fantasy! I was really envious of Marc there for a minute thinking, shoot! How come I never made it to Beruit during those golden Druid days??? By the time I was headed to the city everything had blown to hell so I had to repair to Amman instead---where, I can assure you, there was not a Druid in sight.

God wouldn't that be amazing. A woman Prime Minister in Lebanon. These folks sure deserve a break. All prayers and good thoughts.

[GMRoper]

From the Paper of Leftist Reasoning.... Whoops, from the Paper of Record comes this: "Still, this has so far been a year of heartening surprises - each one remarkable in itself, and taken together truly astonishing. The Bush administration is entitled to claim a healthy share of the credit for many of these advances. It boldly proclaimed the cause of Middle East democracy at a time when few in the West thought it had any realistic chance. And for all the negative consequences that flowed from the American invasion of Iraq, there could have been no democratic elections there this January if Saddam Hussein had still been in power. Washington's challenge now lies in finding ways to nurture and encourage these still fragile trends without smothering them in a triumphalist embrace."

Besides the fact that "Triumphalism" and "Triumphalist" has replaced "Gravitas" as descriptors of the right/neo-con/BushCo, I also note that the NYTimes is re-thinking their insistance that the Palme affair was perhaps not "illegal." "...the real possibility that the disclosure of Ms. Plame's identity, while an abuse of power, may not have violated any law. Before any reporters are jailed, searching court review is needed to determine whether the facts indeed support a criminal prosecution under existing provisions of the law protecting the identities of covert operatives."

But the Times is just a freakshow, the main attraction in this circus is that democracy seems to be breaking out in the mid-east. While that may portend future difficulty as John Moore stated above, the long term benefit just might have been worth the sacrifice and the effort.

[Marc Davidson]

John Moore's selective memory is just what this administration loves to see.
Remember it was the Reagan administration that encouraged the Syrians to come into Lebanon in the first place. This was specifically to rout the PLO and to weaken the Sunnis and the Druze, whose leader they killed. This revisionist history reminds me of the convenient forgetting about the long term US support for Saddam Hussein in Iraq before he became the evil dictator.
The turn of events in Lebanon has to do with the assassination of Hariri and very little to do with anything the Bush administration has done other than to encourage pinning the blame on the Syrians. There was no strategic value for the Syrians in assassinating Hariri. The Israelis and the US, however, have reaped great rewards. Although maybe not the Israelis who might have to follow suit and end their own occupation.

[GMRoper]

From Matthew Yglasias: "I clicked over to The Corner to see who was complaining about liberal bloggers failing to acknowledge the weekend's positive developments in Egypt, and what did I find? Not only is nobody complaining, virtually nobody is acknowledging the weekend's positive developments in Egypt! All you get is Jonah Goldberg quoting Jackson Diehl. Look, people, get excited! Yes, it's but a tentative step and things could still all work out poorly, but still, this is a pretty unambiguous success for Bush's second term freedom kick. It's also a stunning refutation of those of us who argued that he'd never follow through on his lofty rhetoric. Give the man some props.

And not just to poke fun, but it's actually important that props be given. Bush has, historically, gotten a lot of praise for his lofty rhetoric. He's also been rather diffident about actually doing something about it. But he decided to go do something. Test the waters, so to speak. If doing the right thing winds up just being met with stony silence, then there's little reason to think it'll be the start of a trend. But it should start a trend...."

[Anthony Nassar]

Beirut was, in some more ways, more beautiful than Paris (a Mediterranean view will do that), and Lebanese are far more convivial than Parisians, though just as worldly. I have relatives there, though they advise me not to visit for a while. It would be a good thing if Beirut could be itself again, and again present to the world an entirely different Middle Eastern visage than the dour, resentful face of Wahhabism.

[PJ]

It was quite a leap for me to sign on to the Bush doctrine. I didn't recognize myself. I worried Bush would make things worse in the ME, then cut and run. I lost friends. Of course, I'm happy today! I'm sure the Bushies are too, who risked so much more than me. I guess that makes us "triumphalists." Yes, yes, we have made mistakes in the Middle East and so have Britain, France and all the assorted Arab strong men, but now the freedom lovers know they have a partner they can trust in the US.

Those Lebanese in the streets look pretty triumphalist, too, and I'm deliriously happy to be in their company.

[Peter K.]

As a liberal hawk, I have to admit I was surpised by the tenacity of the Iraqi and jihadist "insurgents." But now I'm pleasantly surprised by the Iraqi and Palestinian electorate and by organizers and activists in Lebanon, Syria and Egypt. In its editorial today the New York Times acts as if it never suggested putting off the Iraqi election.

Dennis Perrin, meanwhile, grouches:

""Freedom" and "democracy" are tossed around liberally these days, esp by the swivelchair crowd. Of course, what they really mean when they say "freedom" and "democracy" is simply "shut up." These words are conversation-enders, not preludes to expanded debate. Criticize the war? Then you hate "freedom," so clam your traitorous ass. Believe that the Bush gang is corrupt? Then you despise "democracy" and need to be escorted from the room.

"Freedom" and "democracy" have been used to cover all manner of crimes and madness, but now the strain is starting to show, primarily in Iraq, but also in mostly-forgotten Afghanistan where we are told, when the topic bobs up, that "democracy" is taking root. No need to explain further. Go back to your regularly-scheduled life. Praise Bush. Shop Wal-Mart."
http://redstateson.blogspot.com/2005/03/free-to-starve.html

Huh? What? Thus does the American left expend itself.

[Marc Davidson]

PJ, I'm not sure the Lebanese are deliriously happy to be in your company.
Also any trend, GM, of US involvement in the democratization of the Middle East must begin with the CIA overthrow in Iran of democratically elected Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953. The trend continues with the installation in Lebanon in 1957, with US participation, of far-right Camille Chamoun after more than a decade there of parliamentary rule. The trend must include as well the support of some of the world's most authoritarian regimes. Even to this day we give a free pass to the Israelis, with whom we have a great deal of influence, in their occupation of the West Bank.
In view of the larger history, which has never been officially acknowledged by the US, I'm not a little skeptical of this new found love of freedom and democracy that is being trumpeted here.

Marc D. "Also any trend, GM, of US involvement in the democratization of the Middle East must begin with the CIA overthrow in Iran of democratically elected Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953."

I absolutely agree with you about the complicity of the CIA in overthrowing the regieme in Iran, but, when do we stop looking in our rearview mirrors? I also know that we "forced" the Russians to back out of northern Iran at the end of WWII.

History is full of both good and bad actions, good actions that had bad unintended consequences and bad actions that turned out pretty good. The debate needs to be centered now, using a modicum of foresight and not so much hindsight, but keeping in mind that those who don't learn from history tend to repeat it.

Thanks for the input....

[Marc Cooper]

Thank you M Turner for ur correction. I had confused my trip to Beirut with my journey to Middle Earth.

[arnold]

"From the Paper of Leftist Reasoning.... "

Correction: from the paper of Judith Miller.

[arnold]

http://www.juancole.com/2005/03/lebanon-realignment-and-syria-it-is.html

"You wonder what would happen if the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza tried the same thing re: Ariel Sharon's military occupation that they face. They'd be crushed by the jackboot (with convenient allegations that they were a front for terrorism)."

so much for the glories of regime change...i.e. the right to make war wherever and whenever those who have the power to make war can.
I don't see how the left could ever concede that desire to the right.

[reg]

"But the Times is just a freakshow..."

Yeah, I guess it is when David Brooks starts going to Wahlid Jumblatt for good quote. I'll stick by "triumphalism" rather than "gravitas" as the word of the day based on what I've read above from the rightward side. When Bush lands in Beirut to accept his Medal of Freedom before cheering crowds, I'll realize just how much love he's single-handedly brought to the Middle East and that the Lebanese people wouldn't have left their homes without his American Express showing them the way. After all, his neo-con advisers have been consistent in their support for those folk ever since their man Sharon's goodwill tour back in the '70s.

Why, oh, why does what might have been a discussion of events in Beirut have to turn into self-parody and ridiculous recrimination before it even gets off the ground. Even marc seems to ground this in his own nostalgia, not to mention his faulty memory (the "internationalist left" wasn't what I would consider consistently "democratic" and hopes for ending tyrannies were hardly it's "sole property".) There's reason to be hopeful, there's lots to learn and there's plenty to worry about...Juan Cole has a great history up - which helps me because Lebanon has been one crazy, mixed up scene. To say that it isn't likely to fall back neatly into place, despite the good efforts of P.J., is sure to be dismissed by some here but, of course, at their own peril. Suffice to say, I'm not going to diminish what's truly important about this by going any more rounds with clowns who are still so defensive about all of the stuff they've been manifestly wrong about over the past two years and can't even begin to admit that their first reaction to the developments in Lebanon is to scan them into some puzzle being put together by the Bush administration in tandem with hired hands from The American Enterprise Institute. I'll credit John Moore, which is something I rarely do, for at least having the sense to see past the headlines.

[arnold]

Juan Cole's historical review is ten times more informed than anything Marc has written on the topic, foget the simplistic attacks on the left.

[Marc Davidson]

Lest PJ and other chest thumpers here think we have a lot of pals among the nationalists in Lebanon, this is what lebanonwire.com has to say about Walid Jumblaat:

"This is significant because Jumblatt is known for his vehement anti-American statements and antagonistic stance toward the U.S. On November, 19, 2003, it was reported that the State Department cancelled Jumblatt’s diplomatic visa following revelations that he expressed regret that Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz was not killed in a missile attack during a visit to Baghdad.
More recently, Jumblatt gave an interview to the Arabic London-based Saudi daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat on February 12, 2004, in which he said: 'We are all happy when U.S. soldiers are killed [in Iraq] week in and week out. The killing of U.S. soldiers in Iraq is legitimate and obligatory.'”

[Marc Davidson]

FYI Jumblaat is the leader of the Druze, one of the main opposition groups in Lebanon.

[PJ]

Yes, Marc Davidson, we all know about the Jumblatts, and the CIA, and on and on and on, the endless drone of defeatism. If we are mindless chest thumpers, you all are mindless pessimists.

So let's stop interpreting current events and talk policy. What is your plan to end terrorism? What is your blueprint for a just and prosperous Middle East? And, finally, why do you think the Lebanese are not happy with the support of Americans like me?

[Marc Davidson]

PJ, maybe one way to help end terrorism is to stop engaging in it... and to stop encouraging it. Q#3: maybe because Jumblaat, the leader of the Druze, has applauded the death of Americans? .... I don't know.

[Ahmed]

Just a off topic tid bit, but Marc, the left has not always been the sole, and only supporers of regine change. In fact American administrations has oftern been held the idea close to their hearst. Allende, Sadinista's, lumumba, chavez et cetera...regime change right. as for lebenon i'd second reg's invocation to read juan cole's thoroughly informed breakdown of modern lebanese history complete with the messy and complicated buisness of ethnic/religious divisions, realpolitics and regional players. as for democratix=zation i tend to agree with cole, is rheotoric coming from the US makes ppl in lebenon and elsewhere more confident in challenging authoritarian strcutures then its a good thing. but for bush and co democratisation projects can and must only fit into their imperial interest in the mddile east, which has historuically buffed up and supported authoritarian insitutions in the first place. a commnetatopr here rightfully pointed out that it was reagan that gave the green light for the surians to enter lebenon in the first place, as a way to make sure it doesn't become a PLO base and the slaughter of palestinians by the syrian forces was dome with US approval. further the horrid invasion of israel in 1983 was also only pssible with US backing. and as for pj and john moore, the reason that their rhetoric about democratization and freedom in the middle east, to me, comes off as awfully disingenous and hollow. Hundred of thousannds of IDF soldiers comtinue to illegally occuppy palestinian land, pal's live under martial law and over 300 000 setttler populate terrotory Israel has ilegally anexed. When John Moores of the world- who think a politicans "freindliness" in conduct towards pals constitures herasy--start to be voacal about the daily crimes of the israeli occupation and the denial of freedom it entails, then perhaps i'll take them seriously. i think that's more then fair.

[Ahmed]

While were talking democratization and the will of the people; commentators, lets unite and compel our gracious host Mact to bring back our friend Steve. Pesky, nitpicky, hyper poster, repetitive, sure, but steve brings an informed and engaged analysis to this joint and he's always been a mainstay here. The place ain't the same, since he left. What you say Marc?

[reg]

"What is your blueprint for a just and prosperous Middle East?"

The very formulation of the question stands as a roadmap to the lalaland of "mindless optimism" ? From the safe confines of my swivel chair, I would award a Captain's badge in the Fighting 69th Keyboard Commandos for that one...

It's sobering, although not grounds for sheer pessimism - mindless or not - to realize that key players in this drama like Jumblatt, who are nothing if not typical of opinion on the "Arab street" (which Christopher Hitchens has now rhetorically disappeared, incidentally), can find it in themselves to applaud 9/11 AND the fall of Saddam Hussein, praise both the Palestinian and Iraqi elections AND suicide bombers killing Israelis and Americans, rejoice at the crumbling of a Syrian puppet regime AND the prospect of Iran as a nuclear power. At the very least, it begins to bring some credibility back to that much maligned word, "nuance".

1982

[Green Dem]

What about liberty and democracy at home? Does anybody care about these things still, or is Iraqi and Lebanese liberty more important than American liberty now? Oh, its not choice you say? Bullshit. Lincoln and FDR may have been liberators, but they were also authoritarians, and the lasting loss of domestic freedoms (a fair part of what Lincoln and FDR achieved, in the negative, persists to this day) is also a part of their legacy. Whatever Mr. Bush and his underlings achieve abroad will be gravely diminished by the costs borne by the American people - the lost of lives, dollars, and freedoms - and this is ultimately why I cannot support the neoconservative agenda.