Villaraigosa-Hahn Redux [UPDATED]

Was up all night Tuesday into the Wednesday dawn covering the L.A. Mayor’s race—specifically the candidacy of Bob Hertzberg, a former Assembly Speaker.

Turns out the May 17 run-off will be a rematch from four years ago. Incumbent Jimmy Hahn versus councilman (and also former Assembly Speaker) Antonio Villaraigosa.

Final results give Villaraigosa 33% and Hahn 23%. Hertzberg scored 22% coming within a whisker of dumping Hahn out of the run-off. Former LAPD Chief Bernie Parks took about 14%, mostly all African-American. All the major candidates are Democrats.

Fog settled into the L.A. basin as the polls closed, grounding the choppers that ferry ballots from the boonies into downtown and that snafu prolonged the count into the wee wee hours (sabotaging a scheduled surf fishing trip of mine).

L.A. politics are such that voter turn-out was a meager 30% or less. In a sense, the real campaign begins today after the field has been winnowed to two.

Hahn’s finish with less than a quarter of the votes is a miserable embarrassment for an incumbent. But then again, Hahn is a miserable embarrassment as a Mayor. Soporific, remote, dull and enmeshed in several pay-to-play scandals.

But Mayor Jimmy’s one helluva campaigner, a real shameless street-fighter and everyone agrees we are about to see a bloody rumble between him and his challenger. We did in 2001 when both men vied for the spot left open by Dick Riordan. Hahn finished up with a racially-tinged smear campaign against Villaraigosa--- and won with 53% of the vote.

Much has changed since then. Much has not. It’s reasonable to expect certain racial sub-themes to emerge in this match. With no conservative or Republican in the race, Hahn is the natural to pander to the white suburban vote. Villaraigosa, according to exit polls, has made some inroads into those communities since the last round. But a winning strategy for Hahn must aim to polarize the voters – or he has no chance.

In 2001, Villaraigosa was an unabashed progressive-liberal who spoke in grandiose terms of building a New Los Angeles. During this just concluded campaign, he muted much of that liberal rhetoric and projected a warm and fuzzy image, quoting platitudes about JFK. The new posture left a lot of L.A. liberals wondering where the old fire went and if it would re-ignite in the coming run-off campaign.

Excuse me for being cynical bu there are some deliciously amusing aspects that I’m looking forward to watching. Mostly, just how nasty will Mayor Hahn get to hang onto his seat. Also, the county labor federation – long a Villaraigosa supporter (who is also a former union organizer) —went with Hahn this time. Some old fashioned pork barrel politics (garishly dressed up as a “progressive agenda”) allowed the labor folks to clamber into bed with Hahn. Now they’re stuck with him--- meaning they will have the privilege of financing the coming Hahn campaign smears against their former union compadre, Villaraigosa.

Ain’t politics wonderful?

UPDATE:  Here is my color report filed on election nite from Hertzberg headquarters as now published in L.A. Weekly.  My colleague Rob Greene checks in from the Jimmy Hahn survival victory party. And Jeff Anderson reports from the Villaraigosa camp.

Also... some good political analysis from Kevin Roderick. And veteran poilitical operative/journalist/blogger Joe Scott had it figured out before the votes were counted.

Comments

[jim hitchcock]

So, has Parks come out and endorsed Villagarosa yet? That 14% (who mostly supported Hahn in 2000) are going to be a major player.

[Marc Cooper]

Parks will almost certainly endorse Antonio. How his voters will actually vote for is a different question. The other two big questiona are: will Hertzberg endorse his old room-mate Antonio? (I lean toward a yes on that). And second question: will Hertzie's follow that advice? (I lean toward a no.) It's going to be close, nasty and bloody. Yum yum.

[Rich]

I'm all buckled up and ready for the ride, uneasily prepared for another round of trash strewn by unsurprisingly unimpressive Jimmy. Marc, what kind of influence (if any) do you think Republican voters will have? In 2001 we saw a Riordan endorsement (I'm not sure that was "official") of Antonio, with little apparent effect. Maybe that was your point about Hertzberg's expected Antonio endorsement. Are there really that many Hahn fans out there? Who are these people? Sheesh!

Oh, and the labor endorsement of Hahn still has my head spinning in circles.

[Josh Legere]

Hahn is got it in the bag. He will get most of Park's and Hertzberg's voters and Villagrosa will have meger gains.

The most disturbing aspect of the election will be the racial element. African Americans will go with Hahn due to his pop and the anti-latino sentiment within that community. Whites in the valley (your neighbors Marc) will go with Hahn because he is the most conservative.

Watch the LAPD come out kicking and screaming for Hahn. I have a friend in the force and he informed me that the department is fearfull of Villagrosa.

[rosedog]

Marc....All good pieces...yours, Jeff's and Rob's. Fun to read. I'm figuring on an Antonio victory party in 8 weeks.

Josh, I dunno where the union is going to come down with regard to AV, but, I assure you, command staff at LAPD likes him just fine.

(Antonio's been working bigtime to build good relationships with law enforcement ever since he was elected to the city council. In fact, IMHO, he's worked a little TOO hard to get on the cops' good side.)

And, although they'll never say it above a whisper, everyone at Parker Center knows Hahn screwed up in a major way with the budget when it came to getting money for more cops a year ago.

[burritomama]

Yes, all good pieces. This place is fast becoming a one-stop shop/read-around for me. Thanks.

I am cautiously hoping for an Antonio victory party in a few weeks too - but it's going to be rough going to get there.

Hang on.

[Sean Guillory]

I coming back to LA in three weeks and I hope I'm still home so I can vote before returning back here to Russia!

Give'em hell Tony!

Sean

[V]

De-lurking to thank you for your thoughtful coverage of this race and to question the prevailing wisdom here about AV. His track record, at least here in city government, has been mostly flash and very little substance, chasing the photo op at the expense of doing the hard work necessary to change the bureaucracies and prod them into useful action.

I will vote for him (after voting for Hertzberg in the primary) not so much because I think he'll be a great mayor but because I think almost anyone, at this point, will be better than Hahn.

Most of you here favor Villaraigosa because of his progressive politics -- but what is it exactly that you think he will do as mayor to realize a progressive vision? My politics are much closer to Villaraigosa's than Hertzberg, but I voted for Hertzberg because I believe he is much more grounded and actually cares about getting some results.

I would be curious to know exactly what policies and programs and innovations you think that AV will advance. LA (the government if not the town) has an awful lot of cutting-edge progressive policy on the books already and is extremely union-friendly (sometimes to its detriment as with police reform and managing DWP). The issues truly crying out for radical reform -- policing, water and energy and sewage and solid waste, housing, land use -- are so intractable, and so tied up with the interests of middle-class voters and influential contributors, that I don't believe AV is bold enough to take them on in any meaningful way.

[V]

Meant to add also, responding to Rich, that Riordan campaigned like crazy for AV in the general election (his passion coming more from hatred of Hahn than love of AV), and pretty energetically for Hertzberg this time, so it would appear that his endorsement isn't all that valuable in moving votes.

[Marc Cooper]

"V" Thanks for joining the discussion. These are great questions raise and there are no easy answers. The uneasiness you voice about AV is something I am hearing from a lot of his supporters: they know they want to support him but they are having trouble figuring out exactly why!

[GMRoper]

Marc, I'd be interested in your views of how whoever wins will impact the next governor's race and the current "Governator's" battle with the democratic legislature?

Thanks, and by the way, excellent posting recently. Sorry I've not been commenting as usual, grading mid=term exams etc.

[Marc Cooper]

GM.. I dont think the L.A. Mayor's race will at all affect the Sacramento food fight. Among the has-run candidates, only Hertzberg was close to Arnold. Both Hahn and Villaraigosa are equally distant from him.

Arnold has taken a sort of unexpected turn to the righ and toward Big Money recently which is costing him big time-- and you're hearing that from someone who was at least neutral or better on him.

Arnie won a lot of points by sweeping a pay-to-play Gray Davis out of office. But since then Arnold has raised MORE cash than his predescessor and his railing against Special Interests has lost its punch. Only the most right-wing Republican believes that nurses and teachers are special interests but that bankers, insurance companies, developers and car dealers who finance Arnold are not.

I suspect he will win re-election as his celebrity is near impossible to overcome. But he's not exactly building an honorable political legacy.

[rosedog]

V. ... I'm an Antonio supporter who also likes Hertzberg... But we ain't got a Hertzberg candidacy on the table right now. So, in answer to your question (in no particular order):

***When it comes to dealing with gridlock, I think, of the three AV has the best shot at getting the Red Line extension up and going toward PCH. He's a good horse trader, and I think he can get Waxman on board. The rest of his traffic plan also looks smart and reasonably doable.

*** When AV talks about getting more cops on the street---as all of the candidates (save Parks) did---his plan is the most grounded and realistic. He's promising 300 more fairly immediately, which is all the LAPD could reasonably recruit and train over the next year. Hertzberg has over promised, swearing he'll get 2000 or 3000 more cops, which is just crowd-pleasing rhetoric, and displays a poor grasp of the realities of the situation. And Jim Hahn has already badly bobbled the More Cops situation a year and a half ago---when he had plenty of good will and momentum going for him.

But---unlike any of the others---Antonio ALSO pledges to put 15 percent of any new money raised for public safety toward prevention and intervention. Public safety is a 3-pronged endeavor. Law enforcement is only one of those prongs; prevention and intervention are the other two. Antonio TRULY gets that. He's the only guy who shows up at gang intervention events when the cameras aren't present---and he has for years. I know of at least one former gang member on his senior staff, someone to whom he's offered a chance at a new life (and it's paid off for all concerned). Antonio gets the intervention concept at a gut level. This is true of precious few politicians---and our lousy incarceration and recidivism rates are the result

*** As much as I've privately made fun of Antonio's endless quoting (and on election night, misquoting) of JKF’s "Ask not......yadda, yadda, yadda....” I think he means it. He wants to get citizens involved. That’s very forward looking. We gotta all take ownership. And the mayor can use the bully pulpit to get us off our rears and into a more involved, working relationship with the city. He’s already done it, at least on a beginning level, in the 14th district.

There's more... but you get the drift.

[Marc Cooper]

Rosdod loves that hibiscus kool-aid!

[rosedog]

Now, now, Marc.... AV also bugs me,....because I know his downsides, plus he's being insanely overcautious at the moment. But I'm just listing some of his good points---what he's capable of....if we get Good Antonio. Optimism, my dear.

Look, I'd've been quite happy with your Bobzilla, too. I'm just ready to have Jimmy out.

[reg]

"Arnold has taken a sort of unexpected turn to the right and toward Big Money recently..."

Unexpected to who, exactly?

[Rich]

Reg, I had the same reaction. I'm no political expert, but Arnold was an easy call--always has been firmly and unequivocally on the right with respect to economic issues (i.e., antagonistic to interests of most middle and working class Californians like myself), and any moderateness that I've observed has always been in the social sphere. I'm unimpressed with him, but equally unsurprised.

[reg]

Also a bully and a flagrant opportunist...

[Michael Turmon]

Tony is definitely *not* out to give anyone hell.

[V]

Thanks for the responses, Marc and rosedog. The thing is, I WANT to be excited about Villaraigosa and inspired by his leadership -- gimme some of that good Kool-Aid! But it pisses me off that so many AV supporters seem to think that an unreflective "well, he's the *progressive* candidate" is the only argument they need for his candidacy.

And interestingly, rosedog, of the reasons you cite to vote for AV's candidacy, only one -- prevention efforts -- can really be characterized as a progressive initiative.

You are right, though, that the immediate task is to get him elected and be done with the inertia and old boys' club of Hahn and his people. I just worry that we'll be trading one form of cronyism for another.

And I'm not mourning Hertzberg's defeat overmuch, believe me. My read on a Hertzberg administration is that it would in many ways (ideology, beholden-ness to conservative monied interests) have resembled the Hahn administration, just with a little more spark and momentum. Hertzberg's public pandering and overreaching and misrepresentations, especially in the early days of his campaign, made my stomach turn (that bad Kool-Aid again), but in the end I voted for him in spite of his campaign promises, because his track record is to care about issues and see them through, whether or not he gets credit for them. And I figured that was the mayor I'd like to have.

I am looking forward to future discussions here (though I will likely continue to stay out of the non-LA discussions -- too contentious and ideological for me). Other local politics blogs with comments enabled are petty and shallow, and LAT coverage is just, well, shallow. So thanks for hosting this, Marc!

RE: Schwarzenegger. Why doesn't OUR side have a opportunistic bully with more charisma than integrity to run for office?

[reg]

"a opportunistic bully with more charisma than integrity"

mostly for laughs I'll venture that Grey Davis DID, in fact, have more charisma than integrity...

[rosedog]

V... You're absolutely right, of course. Most of the things I listed re: Antonio aren't all that progressive----only the gang intervention thang. I admit I thought about that as I wrote it. But, the truth is, so many of the big issues facing LA aren't really conservative or progressive. For example, we need somebody who can find some way to take a whack or two at gridlock, which is an issue that drives everyone mad---regardless of where they fall on the socio-polical-economic spectrum.

I thought Yvonne Burke's endorsement of AV today was sort of cheering---especially since she's been a Hahn supporter in the past.

[V]

Rosedog, I couldn't agree with you more, on all counts. Your statement that "many of the big issues facing LA aren't really conservative or progressive" was exactly the point I was trying to make, rather ineptly, in explaining my distaste for the smug liberals who reflexively back AV and my decision to vote for Hertzberg in the primary.

The Burke endorsement is very interesting, I agree, and makes me hopeful also. Burke and other credible, well-liked leaders in the black community (John Mack comes to mind) -- if they actively work to get Villaraigosa elected, and swing that crucial chunk of the electorate -- could be real partners in the new power structure.

And having a mayor who brings together African-American and Latino constituencies, in ways more substantial than cosmetic, would be an end in itself. The xenophobic, anti-busing, anti-tax, NIMBY malcontents in the Valley and elsewhere are NOT the same as "middle-class white voters" and get far more than their due, politically. A strong Latino-African-American-progressive alliance could marginalize the angry white folks, which would best be handled delicately but all in all be a good thing...