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Wednesday, July 20, 2005

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reg

You've laid out the terrain very accurately...but so far, I don't see Roberts as a guy who's going to set off the kind of war that was, legitimately, sparked by Bork and Thomas. My worst fear was the ultra-reactionary, bigot Janice Rogers Brown. I detest that creep, not just for her pre-New Deal turbo-right extremism but for her gay-bashing. I don't think there's any way a Roberts nomination can be stopped. And if he is, it will be a prelude to someone far worse as payback - with more of our blood on the ground than theirs. I don't like this guy's approach at all, but he may turn out to be another one of those conservatives who gravitate toward moderation on the Court. And I'll bet that Bush's next pick when Rhenquist drops will be Henry. Which would more than likely leave Roe v. Wade exactly as it stands today.

As for Rove v. USA, I don't think this was the best cover by a long shot. Whatever happens, the hearings won't be as incendiary and dragged out as they would have been with a couple of others. NARAL and a few issue-oriented stalwarts should take their best shot, because that's what they're there for. But I don't see this Roberts nomination squeezing all the juice out of liberals over the next couple of months. My personal reaction was, frankly, a bit of relief that it wasn't even worse, given that the word was out that Bush was taking a pass on the G-man.

green dem

Good. The Bushies and their red state mendicants are courting a full blown constitutional crisis with their blue and purple state adversaries in the next fifteen years.

A pre new deal interp of the commerce clause effectively means that blue staters may well no longer have to keep paying for red state welfare (in case anyone hasn't heard by now there is and has been a net wealth transfer from blue to red states for years: http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2004/09/red_states_feed.html).

Overturning Roe V Wade will be the worst thing to happen to the Republican Party since the great depression. Moderates Republican (all five of them) will flee the party, and independents won't go near em for a generation. But I confess that it will be a richly pleasurable to watch all those dumbass independents in their great dismay over having voted for Republican monsters thirty six years running.

And any remaining hope of uniting the country around the goal of fighting Islamist extremism and bringing democracy to the Arab-Muslim (or quite frankly uniting the country around *anything*) world will be lost.

GM

Everyone sit down, take a deep breath, sip on a strong coffee with a bit of Kaluah; I agree with reg. I don't agree about brown, but the rest of it is pretty accurate as I see it.

green dem

"Everyone sit down, take a deep breath, sip on a strong coffee with a bit of Kaluah;"

We've been lying down, getting anally raped by your kind for years GM. There will be no more sitting down anymore, only standing up.

Cridland

Would two hundred people have died in Iraq last week if we hadn't invaded?

GM

Green Dem, the only thing that has raped you is your own paranoid thinking.

GM

Cridland, perhaps, Saddam did that many for breakfast.

green dem

"Green Dem, the only thing that has raped you is your own paranoid thinking."

Just don't come calling on blue states when you need kids to do guard duty in Fallujah, or pay the trillion dollar price tag for your president's crusade.

PS Fuck you.


richard lo cicero

I think you are wrong about this Marc. Harry Reid ain't so bad in the poker dept. either and his initial statement was about right. He seems qualified, Reid said, but we'll have to see what the hearings tell us. I'm sure NARAL and PFAW will onject and maybe even spend some money on ads. In the end he will be confirmed with around 40 or so no votes. Reid knows when to fold em. Besides, as John Aravosis writes, this is a two or three day story until the hearings and then a week or so. In the meantime the Grand Jury is ticking and Iraq just gets worse. Think your friend in Fresno will forget about Rove that quickly? I've got more faith in him. He's not stupid and he is going to get real mad at people who keep playing him for a dummy.

Jay Byrd

It's interesting that Marc advises the Democrats to act in exactly the way for which he accuses them of being jackasses.

“You know what, Mr. President? You can have your Judge Roberts because we don’t have the votes. Now let’s get back to talking about that little war of yours.”

Talk is cheap, Marc.

Jay Byrd

Here's a good piece on Roberts and Roe v. Wade that underscores why the Dems should stick to principles rather than cagily but ineffectively calculating odds:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/7/14/175556/803

Also, if the Dems don't stick up for Roe v. Wade now, they'll have a heck of a time when John Paul Stevens keels over.

Marc Cooper

Well.. those who are brave enough to disagree with me...will you please play oout this hand and show me what the winning moves look like? Play it out completely.

NetOx

“Would two hundred people have died in Iraq last week?”

Maybe not, but if we are trotting out the numbers of dead Iraqi civilians murdered this week by the insurgency. We ought to recite the weekly executions that Saddam ordered for comparison.

61,000 Baghdad residents (51 executed per week)
500,000 in 270 mass grave sites (418 execute per week)
180,000 Kurds in north (150 executed per week)

Iraqi political parties estimate more than 1 million were executed over the 23 years of Saddam’s regime averaging 836 executions per week. [1000000/(23*52) = 836]

(AP story2003):
http://www.canadiangrassroots.ca/sections.php?op=printpage&artid=7410

NetOx

It seems at first reports that Roberts is a "strict constructionist" of the U.S. Constitution, who would not find the right to abortion in the constitution and if up to his vote would overturn ROE. “Pro-family legal experts who know Roberts best, say they are extremely pleased with the pick.”

Hopefully he wouldn’t also find that the 5th amendment “public use” clause really means a private golf course.

Looks hopeless for Dems to stop Roberts, best to back off gracefully.

richard lo cicero

Since I can't sleep I'll tell you how to play this hand Marc. Sen. Reid set the tone yesterday when he conceded the obvious that Mr Roberts had the qualifications. He also made the right noises about waiting for the hearings. I'm sure that Sens Kennedy, Boxer, Schumer and Clinton will make disparaging noises and the usual suspects in the activist community will oppose with great vigor. Maybe even put an ad or two on CNN. And Dobson may do the same. Great, remember this President has low approval numbers, low numbers on empathy for "us" and low numbers on policy. So when he says "trust me" only hard core Republicans will go along. I guess the rest including those independents will already have problems. In fact I bet the Bushies will try to keep the AFA and Focus on the Family forces away if possible. In the end he'll get his man - that election you know. But it will cost him. Hispanics will feel slighted and add that to the Tancredo wing I see New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado turning blue.

And Iraq is not going to go away and neither will Rove/Plame. Will the media notice? Oh, I think so. For one thing the Left blogisphere will remind people. For another St. Judy "languishes" in jail. And there is that State Dept memo and Air Force One and Condi and Powell. Oh iI think there will be plenty of stories.

No, outside of the giggling idiots at FOX the media will spend today and maybe tomorrow on this and then the fecal matter will hit the air circulating devices again.

And you know what? Roberts may turn out to be another Anthony Kennedy. You know the activist judge that Fodson and DeLay want to impeach.

richard lo cicero

Since I can't sleep I'll tell you how to play this hand Marc. Sen. Reid set the tone yesterday when he conceded the obvious that Mr Roberts had the qualifications. He also made the right noises about waiting for the hearings. I'm sure that Sens Kennedy, Boxer, Schumer and Clinton will make disparaging noises and the usual suspects in the activist community will oppose with great vigor. Maybe even put an ad or two on CNN. And Dobson may do the same. Great, remember this President has low approval numbers, low numbers on empathy for "us" and low numbers on policy. So when he says "trust me" only hard core Republicans will go along. I guess the rest including those independents will already have problems. In fact I bet the Bushies will try to keep the AFA and Focus on the Family forces away if possible. In the end he'll get his man - that election you know. But it will cost him. Hispanics will feel slighted and add that to the Tancredo wing I see New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado turning blue.

And Iraq is not going to go away and neither will Rove/Plame. Will the media notice? Oh, I think so. For one thing the Left blogisphere will remind people. For another St. Judy "languishes" in jail. And there is that State Dept memo and Air Force One and Condi and Powell. Oh iI think there will be plenty of stories.

No, outside of the giggling idiots at FOX the media will spend today and maybe tomorrow on this and then the fecal matter will hit the air circulating devices again.

And you know what? Roberts may turn out to be another Anthony Kennedy. You know the activist judge that Fodson and DeLay want to impeach.

too many steves

Agree with Marc on the play by Bush but would add that the risk he takes with this guy is that he turns out like Sandra Day O'Connor and David Souter, i.e.; reliably moderate rather than conservative. Small risk given Roberts resume and paper trail, but given the scant volume of publicly available legal opinion, a risk none the less.

The only thing left in this that holds my interest is to see how the Democratic "strategists" handle the nomination and confirmation process.

too many steves

Two other things I think worthy of note:

Judge Roberts was confirmed in 2003 to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals by a unanimous vote of the Senate.

The Roe v. Wade opinion piece everyone wants to make an issue of was written by Roberts on behalf of his client, the first President Bush. It is not his opinion, it is that of his client, for whom he was hired to advocate.

Talk about a losing hand.

GM

Green Dem: "Just don't come calling on blue states when you need kids to do guard duty in Fallujah, or pay the trillion dollar price tag for your president's crusade.

PS Fuck you."

A goodly number of the lads & lasses in Fallujah, the rest of Iraq and Afghanistan as well as ships at sea and in basic and advanced training now are "kids from blue states." They obviously don't share Green Dems paranoia. As to the price tag; have 100% of the representatives/senators voted against that funding? Hmmm, guess they don't share Green Dems paranoia either. And from what I can tell from a variety of debates, their language is a whole lot more couth as well. When you disagree but bring in that language, you show the paucity of your arguments and the shallowness of your thinking.

A friend who lives in North Carolina needed to come back to New York for medical treatment. Apparently its not very available in Red States. Toyota is building a new manufacturing plant in Ontario, Canada because the work force is better educated and healthier than in the other location it was looking at, Alabama. But, my, those taxes are really low in Alabama. Ain't that a grand thing!

Marc, I agree with your take on the Supreme Court nomination. I hope the Dems are smart enough to let this one pass. Its not like Bush was ever going to nominate someone acceptable so why waste the energy. It doesn't matter in the long run as long as changes happen in 2006 and 2008.

reg

The issue isn't whether Roberts can be "stopped" - he can't. The issue is how to use his nomination to bring the questions at stake in these judicial appointments before the American people in a way that increases trust in the Democrats and decreases trust in Bush and the religious right regarding the judiciary. Who knows...a bit of Lakoff might come in handy.

Americans are firmly pro-choice and we shouldn't let them or us forget it. A "fight" can be mounted over this nomination that doesn't focus on trying to denigrate Roberts but that sows more doubts about Bush's intent. As rlc said, if Focus on The Family goes into the ring on this, it's to our advantage, because they tend to scare small children, independent voters and moderate Repubs (all three moderate Repubs, as someone said - the only one I've ever met is my sister.) I do think it's ironic and odd that Marc is counseling the Dems just to play nice and roll over - which is usually what he excoriates them for.

Mavis Beacon

Stopping Roberts and getting a preferable replacement is, as Marc says, incredibly unlikely. I would add that Democrats need to keep telling their 2006 election narrative: Republicans are an out-of-control, corrupt, and highly partisan majority party that without fail heads for the most right wing, confrontational position. Roberts isn’t the most partisan of choices but he is very conservative. Even if the Dems choose not to make a big fight out of this (perhaps the wisest stance) they need to show how the Republicans have chosen a far right winger who represents the hard core Republicans, not the American people at large.

Woody

Unidentified wrote: "A friend who lives in North Carolina needed to come back to New York for medical treatment. Apparently its not very available in Red States. Toyota is building a new manufacturing plant in Ontario, Canada because the work force is better educated and healthier than in the other location it was looking at, Alabama. But, my, those taxes are really low in Alabama. Ain't that a grand thing!"
__________

Why didn't your friend go to the Duke University Medical Center or to the ones at Emory or the Univ. of Ala. in Birmingham--where people come from all over the world for heart and other specialized treatment. Maybe your buddy went to to get subsidized care in N.Y.--where the taxes are higher. Ain't that grand? Actually, he probably needed a certain specialized care for which a particular doctor in NY was chosen. They have those in red states, too.

Also, Toyota disputes the claim that it went to Canada because they had better educated employees. In fact, the person who made that statement has reversed himself and admitted that it was wrong. Mercedes, Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai are very pleased that they have new plants in Alabama and have expanded them, too. http://tinyurl.com/92638

Using those examples to bash the South and make you look smart failed. Try again or apply the old saying "If you don't like it in the South, Delta is ready when you are."

===============

Now, to the point of this post. Everyone should take solance in knowing that Ann Couler opposes the new Supreme Court nominee.

As far as priorities go, why aren't we still talking about Karl Rove!? Isn't that more important? In fact, Howard Dean accused Bush of using this appointment to deflect attention from Rove. http://tinyurl.com/bo5pr

green dem

Go to hell GM. You're a heartless, lying right-wing troglodyyte and total fucking idiot who doesn't give a shit about what this president is doing to future generations. You'll spin and lie and say anything just to buy time to see your backward agenda enacted. I'm sure you and your red state comrades will be pleased when the Bush court legalizes sexual intercourse with all non feral barnyard animals. Perhaps they'll do so on the inauguration of Jefferson Davis.

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