Arnold Falling

My Nation magazine cover story on Arnold Schwarzennger can now be seen online.

In it, I trace the Governator's ongoing crash since the beginning of the year and assess  his political future heading into a November 8 special election. Arnold called the election to pass a number of ballot initiatives which have all proven to be unpopular. His own popularity rating, meanwhile, continues in the tank. Read the whole piece, but here's an excerpt:

"One of two things is going to happen," says Republican consultant [Allan] Hoffenblum. "First scenario is this election degenerates into a fight between both party bases, a contest over who can turn out the most hard-core supporters." With the Democrats' sizable edge in party affiliation, that scenario would be grim for Schwarzenegger. "Second scenario is that Arnold is able to motivate some soft Democrats and independents by persuading them that redistricting and taking power away from the legislature are important issues." But that, says Hoffenblum, will be "very, very difficult" for the governor to pull off.

You'd think this sort of Republican gloominess would brighten the hearts of California Democrats. And you'd be right. But only in the short run. A recall effort, launched in October, is unlikely to get anywhere. And while the smart money figures on Schwarzenegger getting whipped in his own special election next month, most observers on both sides--at least in private--concede he's still the odds-on favorite for re-election a year from now.

The two declared Democratic candidates, State Controller Steve Westly and State Treasurer Phil Angelides, have little name recognition in populous Southern California. Westley is a wealthy Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and Angelides is a wealthy Northern California developer. Further complicating matters, the centrist Westley, a former eBay executive, is seen by many liberals as being too pro-business; Angelides's Bay Area liberalism might get in the way of attracting swing voters.

Little surprise, then, that so far Schwarzenegger's strongest Democratic critic has been his Hollywood compadre Warren Beatty. Sounding a tad like his movie character Jay Bulworth, Beatty has in the past few months verbally trounced Arnold in university and union venues, arguing that the governor "misled" Californians with his initial moderate pitch.

Beatty, whose political activism dates back to the 1960s, is an unlikely long shot to actually run against Schwarzenegger. But he told me he's not completely ruling it out. "Being as meticulously truthful as possible," Beatty said, "I'm saying I don't want to run for governor. But I do believe in public service, in giving back. We have two good men out there who have announced their intention to run against Arnold. But I don't close the door."

Comments

[rosedog]

Marc.... Congrats on this. Look forward to reading it tonight. Good grief but you're fabulously prolific this month.

[Freddy the Pig]

Uh, not to put too fine a point on it, but aren't the two things that could happen in the ballot elections 1) he loses and 2) he wins? Funny how I didn't see that last one in there.

And it's a funny view of democracy by which high voter turnout is seen as "degenerating" from the apparently preferable state of low turnout.

Whatever you think of Arnold as an officeholder, the state of stagnation, incumbent-protection and special interest beholdenness in California politics hardly seems, to this outsider in a similarly stagnant state, something to cheer for. That its continuation represents the fondest hopes and highest ambitions of "progressives" (well, along with seeing Karl Rove marched in frog-boots or whatever that was) is pretty goddam depressing.

[richard lo cicero]

Since the Field Poll shows both Westley and Angelides leading the Governator with their lousy name recognition I'd say the odds on Arnold being reelected are pretty slim. I think after he gets whipped in the Special he will turn to all those Wilson advisors around him who will explain that the only thing that will save him is to go hard on Illegal Immigration. So look for "Son of 187" on the Nov 2006 ballot. Problem is the state has changed since 1994 with all those white flighters moving to Utah. But, let's face it, the campaign will be down and dirty.

[W.J.A]

Actually, support for Arnold's bills is now ahead, apparently. Way ahead:

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/columns/barone_051008_2.htm

Polling up to late September showed 76 and 77 losing, 74 ahead by unimpressive margins, and only 75 leading by significant margins.

But last month, Schwarzenegger's personal and ad campaigns in favor of the propositions started. SurveyUSA polls, conducted by telephone machines from September 30 to October 2, showed all four of his propositions leading by substantial margins. This represents so striking a shift that many political professionals were skeptical of the results. But they appear to be corroborated by Schwarzenegger's internal polling, as reported by California Republican insider Bill Whalen in www.weeklystandard.com and by a television poll taken this week. Here is Whalen's report of the numbers.

Here's what the governor's internal polling shows:

Prop. 74 55% Yes 44% No
Prop. 75 60% Yes 37% No
Prop. 76 58% Yes 36% No
Prop. 77 59% Yes 36% No

Here's a survey, done this week, by KABC-TV in Los Angeles and KPIX-TV in San Francisco:

Prop. 74 55% Yes 44% No
Prop. 75 60% Yes 37% No
Prop. 76 58% Yes 36% No
Prop. 77 59% Yes 36% No

[Michael Turner]

Warren *Beatty*? OMG. This is the guy who is on record as having described the quandary of his life in these terms: He could be president, or he could fuck a lot of women. And he decided to fuck a lot of women. (In the nicest possible way, it would seem, if the reports of those women are any indication.) I suppose Clinton's survival of the Monica debacle has emboldened him to think he can have his cake and eat it too. Besides, the election of a Governator has shown that anything is possible.

Sometimes I feel I must hang my head in shame when telling people I'm a native -- nay, second-generation -- Californian. I usually squirm around that one by pointing out that I was actually born in Berkeley, which has only in recent years reopened diplomatic relations with the United States. But the genetic blot is indelible -- my father's side of the family is LA, straight up, and linked to both Hollywood and (*shudder*) the sprawling real estate empires.

[Freddy the Pig]

Remember the Rolling Stone interview with Beatty years ago where the reporter got so exasperated with his long pauses in the middle of thoughts that he listed the elapsed time: "I think that... (17 seconds)... Shampoo captured a certain... (11 seconds)... thing about life... (23 seconds)... today."

That'll really work well in a televised debate, I think.

On October 7th, Arnold vetoed one of the wine industry's top targets this year. SB 455 (Escutia) was opposed by the Wine Institute because it would have strengthened pesticide regulation. On that same October 7th, the Henry Wine Group, a major player in the industry (though not traditionally a major donor in California), kicked in $100 K to the Gov's ballot initiative campaign committee, the California Recovery team. Talk about juicing an industry.

...
(a different bill)

On Friday, the last day for Arnold to sign or veto the bill, one of the bill's lead opponents, the American Insurance Association, sent the gov a $105,000 campaign contribution. That same day, before you could say "waste of taxpayer money," Arnold vetoed the bill.

from http://www.arnoldwatch.org

A man with stunning integrity and a natural politician.

[Jim Russell]

Do you agree with any of the Governor's Proposition Initiatives to attempt to fix the problem in Sacramento that put him in office to begin with, Marc?

They are all designed to control an out-of-control spending habit that, after getting their $15 Billion Credit-card paid off by us with a long term bond in the last election, continue to refuse to cooperate with a new Governor willing to lead and take the heat for the spending reductions required to stop our hemorrhaging, currently $25 Billion pints and rising.

People in CA are fed up with Sacramento's bad habit of failing to raise taxes for fear of losing their political jobs, but go right ahead and spend as if they have. Arnold will get every one of his initiatives, designed to by-pass these girlie-persons(as they would say), for the same reasons he got elected. We are fed-up with these entrenched irresponsible gerrymanders.

The only ones who don't have to exercise responsibility, fiscal or otherwise are Ahnold's corporate donors!

[Jake Madison]

Your cover story reminds me of the good 'ol days when The Nation actually was an excellent magazine, a must-read for all -- not just for narrow-minded propagandists.

[Jim Russell]

Steve. Is that you hiding behind that anonymosity keyboard? You elusive little devil you.

[Virgil Johnson]

I fail to see what is difficult about identifying the Govs. position. The only thing you have to remember is that Arnold wants to destroy anything that is beneficial to people above coporate interest and his own, the two are synonymous.

With Prop. 73 he panders to the hard right and their aversion to abortion, it is merely a tokenism. It merely tickles ears.

Prop.74 put's good potential teachers in hold, thereby keeping their wages minimal. It guts any form of stability in the teaching profession, tenure of any sort. It increases the probability of dismissal so the Gov. can bash education if he choses during times of fiscal crisis, etc.

Prop. 75 just is a way to tie up any voice of collective force, once again gutting the people's ability to wage war against government abuse.

Prop. 76 is just further defunding of schools, not only in the form of current budget but future funding, etc.

Prop. 76 just is a proposal that guts the power of opposition to the Gov.

I mean, it's like this guy has a wet dream of everything he wants, and now wants to make his dreams come true at the expense of the people. Gimme a break.

[richard lo cicero]

Maybe Arnold's internal polls show winning margins but in the real world they all lose bigtime. Sorry.

[Jim Russell]

We have all run into people that wont lead, wont follow and worse, wont get out of the way. Sacramento's obstructionist days are numbered. The number is 11-08-05-Prop-77 redistricting by Judges, not gerrymanders.

My poll is a personal one. I have yet met one person in CA that is not in favor of helping the Governor do the job he was elected for. I have never been wrong. :)

[Virgil Johnson]

Jim, the only thing that you above statement proves is who your crowd is - anyone can say the same thing in the exact opposite environment. The crowd of the disinfranchised is getting bigger and bigger (I wonder why), those of your opinion are not only the minority at this present time - but will be the big losers when the vote is finally tallied not only in this present concern, but just in general.

[Rich]

"helping the Governor do the job he was elected for."

Except that he's not. Which is what Marc's article does an excellent job of demonstrating. Arnold's an actor who pretended to play politics "differently", and he did a fine job of acting. But that's precisely the problem: it was just an act. And I've yet to meet one person in CA who isn't PO'd about it.

Bye, Arnold. Thanks for wasting our time and resources.

[Jim rockford]

Arnold? He's a fairly Richard Riordan type liberal Republican. Up against career pols with little statewide following and bad issues.

Westly and Angelides will do poorly in SoCal, particularly in still conservative places that are growing faster. Richard is right in that high costs, destruction of the wage base, and various anti-business policies led to a high degree of white flight to other states in the West; however there still are a lot of people here who fit the description of moderate Anglo voters and they are turned off by the excessively liberal positions of the Dems.

Fastest growing places are affordable housing areas on the outskirts of metro areas, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley. That's Arnold Country.

Warren Beatty? Gimme a break he hosted George Galloway at his home for two days. That alone will torpedo any ambitions he has.

The problem is that neither Party has grown Statewide politicians who are respected and seen as effective. There is no Pat Brown, no "unifying" person who is seen as competent and moderate. So Arnold probably wins being pro-business, fairly pro-environment, anti-union (a winner for most people who will be excluded from union membership) and a fiscal conservative.

Ask yourself WHAT do the Dems offer in competition? Not being Arnold? I don't see that as enough. Arnold IS vulnerable IMHO to being picked off by a comprehensive plan to increase housing ownership and fix traffic problems. I don't see that in the works so he gets the "competent" vote with the array of regional hacks facing him.

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[Nursing tops]

wew! Arnold was my idol before. i never knew that Arnold has this issues, well, thanks for this blog anyway even though im a bit of late on this one.

[cna certification test]

[email protected][email protected][email protected][email protected][email protected][email protected][email protected]~~~~~~wew! Arnold was my idol before. i never knew that Arnold has this issues, well, thanks for this blog anyway even though im a bit of late on this one.